Like a game of whack-a-mole, the date for the completion of the decennial United States Census (the process of actually getting all households in the nation to fill out and submit data forms) keeps popping up.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed the Trump Administration to halt the 2020 census count ahead of schedule, effectively shutting down the window for completion of the count two weeks before the planned completion of October 31. While the order technically only pauses the population count while the administration and groups advocating a more accurate census battle in a federal appeals court over whether the count could be stopped early, in reality the process cannot be easily stopped and restarted this close to the deadline at the end of October.
As we have written in the past on the subject of the Census, undercounting statewide will result in Ohio being unfairly deprived of critical funding for roads, schools, health care, water quality, childcare, agriculture support, job training and more than 300 other federal programs.
The good news is that more Ohioans in 2020 self-reported to their year’s census than did so in 2010. Additionally, Ohio has exceeded the national completion rate, with 70.6% of households completing this years survey. Nationally, the rate was only 66.8%.
Data courtesy of the U.S. Census Bureau. Current through October 13, 2020
Self-response rates among Ohio’s 88 counties range from a high of 82.4% in Medina County to a low of 50.3% in Ottawa County.
Data courtesy of the U.S. Census Bureau. Current through October 13, 2020 Bold represents the largest counties by population in the state.
Despite the increase in participation from 2010, Ohio remains one of 10 states that are on the bubble, based on current projections, to lose representation in Congress. This is not due to a decline in actual population, in fact Ohio’s population has been increasing over the past decade. Instead, it is due to the fact that Ohio is not growing as fast as other states. Mirroring a trend that has been ongoing for more than 50 years, higher rates of population growth continue to be in the sunbelt.
Source: Brennan Center for Justice. Image by Greater Ohio.
New York is likely to be the biggest loser in Congressional reapportionment after 2020, with the potential to lose as many as 2 seats following the census. Ohio joins the states of Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia as likely to lose 1 seat. For Ohio, that would reduce Congressional representation to just 15 members of Congress. In 1970, Ohio had 24 seats. Since then, Ohio has trended downward each Census in representation:
The most recent round of reapportionment saw the loss of two congressional seats – one in the Miami Valley and one in Northeast Ohio. The trend of population migration in Ohio would suggest that Northeast Ohio again will likely be the area of the state again to lose representation in 2023.
The final report of the 2020 Census is to be submitted to the President of the United States on December 31. Then, numbers will be released with the states estimating which states will see official changes to their congressional apportionment. Ohio has a deadline of September 1, 2021 for the final state legislative district plan, and September 30, 2021 for the final Congressional district plan. State House and Senate districts will be redrawn based on population changes but the number of districts (99 in the House, 33 in the Senate), remains the same.
2021 will be the first time Ohio utilizes a new redistricting process. For state legislative districts, Ohio’s redistricting commission must draw draft plans, hold at least three public hearings, and pass plans by September 1, 2021. If the commission fails to pass plans with bipartisan support by that date, it can set districts on a party-line simple majority vote by September 15, 2021.That map, however, would have to be redrawn after 2024 according to a constitutional amendment approved by Ohio voters in 2018.
For congressional districts, Ohio’s legislature must pass a final plan by September 30, 2021 with a three-fifths bipartisan supermajority in each chamber. Failure to do so would send the process to the commission that draws state legislative maps, which would have until October 31, 2021 to pass a plan with a bipartisan majority. Should the backup commission fail, the legislature has another opportunity to pass a plan by November 30, 2021.
Top Photo: Ohio’s Current Legislative Districts (L-R) Ohio House, Ohio Senate, U.S. House of Representatives. Image Source: Brian Olson